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Tuesday, December 28, 2021

and as long as we're doing shoutouts to nincompoops zoolers it looks like China is not the Golden Goose that you constantly harp on as Kopin's Promised Land...Why has Investment in China OLED Microdisplay collapsed? In a word because they suck...

#6 More Than $2 Billion Investment in OLED Microdisplays for AR/VR - WRONG

While AR/VR has emerged as one of the hottest topics of the year, and while OLED microdisplays appear to have an inside track to win this application, we got a little ahead of ourselves with this prediction. We had predicted a high level of investment in OLED microdisplay based on some aggressive plans by companies in China.

Several of these investments were delayed or cancelled in 2021, and we estimate investment in OLED microdisplay to total $258M this year, with the largest investment coming from XUS, $191M for a 12-inch R&D facility in Wuxi, Jiangsu, China. One significant plan by Ever Vivid for more than $500M for a phase 2 12-inch line was delayed to 2022 and may be questionable even next year.

Despite more modest investment levels in 2021, we continue to expect substantial investment and growth in OLED microdisplays, based on several public statements:

  • Meta (Facebook) said in October that it expected its investment in its hardware division, Facebook Reality Labs, to reduce overall operating profit in 2021 by approximately $10 billion. It is unclear how much of this investment was in display technologies (including Micro OLED), but we can assume it was a sizeable portion.
  • Sony is still expected to supply Micro OLED displays for the Apple headset, but we hear that production of the displays has been pushed to the first half of 2022.
  • Sidtek recently announced groundbreaking for a 12-inch plant with monthly input of 18K wafers, capable of making 4M displays per year.

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